The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met today to decide whether to move the Bank Rate, and it came as little surprise that they chose to hold at 3.75%.

What is notable, however, is the unanimity of the decision. All nine members voted to hold, including Swati Dhingra, who has often been the outlier in previous meetings. When even the usual dissenting voice aligns with the majority, it tends to signal a stronger level of concern or caution within the committee.

Inflation also remains a key factor. CPIH is currently sitting at 3.2%, still above the Bank of England’s 2% target. More importantly, there are growing risks to the upside. The ongoing situation in Iran introduces uncertainty around energy prices, particularly oil, which feeds through into transport costs, production, and ultimately consumer prices.

Taken together, this paints a clear picture: the MPC may be pausing now, but it does not feel like the end of the tightening cycle.

In fact, the tone of this decision suggests the opposite. A unanimous hold, combined with rising inflation risks, points toward the possibility of further action at the next meeting on 20 April 2026. My view is that a move back up to 4% is highly likely.

Even if geopolitical tensions ease in the near term, any relief in oil prices or supply chains will take time to filter through into the inflation data. Monetary policy, by its nature, works with a lag. That means the MPC is likely to act on current risks rather than wait for confirmed improvements.

For borrowers and the property market, the message is fairly straightforward: stability today does not mean stability tomorrow. The rate hold should not be interpreted as a turning point, but rather a pause while the Bank assesses a still uncertain and potentially inflationary environment.