Market Stress Dashboard

When several indicators turn negative at the same time, the housing market typically weakens. High interest rates, rising unemployment, falling real wages and declining mortgage approvals are all historically linked to price stagnation or outright declines.

This dashboard helps identify early warning signs:

• High interest rates tighten affordability and reduce demand.
• High inflation erodes real incomes, unless wage growth keeps up.
• Weak wage growth makes mortgages harder to service.
• Rising unemployment increases forced sales risk.
• Falling mortgage approvals signal tightening credit conditions.
• Rising repossessions indicate financial distress.
• Increasing mortgage arrears show more borrowers falling behind on payments.
• Weak HPI often reflects reduced demand or affordability pressure.

How the colours and score work:

Each panel is ranked by the length of the current “bad” streak (how many consecutive periods the indicator has moved in the direction that historically signals stress). The direction differs by indicator (e.g. higher interest rates and unemployment are worse, while lower approvals and HPI are worse).

• Green — no current bad streak; conditions broadly supportive or normal.
• Amber — 1 consecutive bad period; early warning signs.
• Red — 2–3 consecutive bad periods; sustained stress signals.
• Dark Red — 4+ consecutive bad periods; elevated risk of downturn.

The Property Stress Index combines all eight indicators into a 0–100 score. Roughly: 70–100 = high stress, 40–69 = elevated risk, below 40 = low stress.